Should Milwaukee have even tried to sign Cordero?

20 02 2008

The Sports Bubbler takes an interesting look at Francisco Cordero today.  They analyze whether or not the Brewers should have even tried to sign Cordero.  Would he have been able to sustain that save conversion rate for the next four years?

This article makes a great overall point.  It would not have made financial sense to offer more money to Cordero to get him to stay in Milwaukee.  His save conversion rate had been a little too sporadic over his career, and it would not have been smart to bank on him to outperform his career average for four years straight.  The Brewers tried to sign Cordero, but it turned out to be a stroke of good fortune that they were unable to do so.

The article misses one important factor when addressing this issue.  The author skirts around the issue, but never directly addresses it.  There are few relievers in the game that are consistent enough to warrant three or four-year deals.  Even Hall of Fame relievers like Mariano Rivera go through rough patches where fans believe he should lose his job.  Melvin brought in Gagne, Mota, and Torres with limited-year deals to revamp the bullpen, but he did not financially handcuff the organization.

The best case scenario for this season?  Gagne pitches lights-out, and the Brewers go to the post-season.  Gagne then goes onto the free agent market, makes his multi-year contract.  The Crew will then sit back, collect the draft picks and sign another reliever for one or two years and hope that works out.  Melvin has been very good at this.  He has signed Dan Kolb (who hasn’t done anything since leaving Milwaukee), Derrick Turnbow (signed off waivers from L.A.), and Fransisco Cordero (got in a trade).  If history means anything, Gagne should thrive in Milwaukee.



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