PECOTA has Milwaukee taking second in Central

16 02 2008

The PECOTA standings came out today (via Baseball Prospectus). According to the projections, the Brewers will be unable to overtake the Cubs down the stretch. Here are the first three spots in the NL Central:

Chicago Cubs 89 73 845 759 .274 .343 .452
Milwaukee Brewers 87 75 829 765 .263 .339 .450
Cincinnati Reds 79 83 772 794 .263 .334 .429

The perceived pitching advantage that Chicago has over Milwaukee does not seem to impress PECOTA. Chicago has the advantage in the Runs Against category, but only by 6 runs. Compare that to Cincinnati’s projection, and Milwaukee’s pitching is projected to be very solid this year.

PECOTA must believe that Chicago added some major power this off-season because the projections have Chicago out-slugging the Brewers. This seems a little off, as the Cubs only added Fukudome this off-season, and he does not project to bring too many home runs to the line-up.

Overall, a 87-75 record from the Brewers would be a very solid season. Although PECOTA has the Crew finishing second to the Cubs in the NL Central, a 87-75 record would be very competitive in the NL Wild Card race.




2 responses

17 02 2008

I questioned the Cubs’ slugging improvement as well. Remember that Geovany Soto is replacing Jason Kendall behind the plate, however, so even without looking up his projections, I’m guessing they get a boost in slugging there as well. I was almost more surprised that the Brewers are projected to shave only eleven runs allowed even with the much-heralded defensive upgrades around the diamond.

17 02 2008

PECOTA might thinking the Cubs will benefit from health they didn’t have last season (Lee especially) but they aren’t out slugging the brewers.

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