Looking towards the future (pt. 2)

After the article I wrote concerning the future of the Brewers franchise, I decided to take the discussion a step further.  How about projecting a lineup for 2011?

I thought about a 2012 prognostication, but the team would lose far too many players to free agency at that point.  The lineup would essentially be a crap shoot.  2011 is much more within reason.  Plus, it far enough away that it can give Brewers fans something to look for down the road.

Here is what your starting lineup in 2011 could look like:

Catcher: Angel Salome

• I hate to break it to you, but Jason Kendall will not be with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2011.  With that said, Angel is the best catching prospect in the farm system right now.  He is only 22 years old, and the backstop can flat rake.  In 2006, his last full season, Angel hit 10 home runs and drove in 85 runs, while still batting a cool .292.  He followed that up with a .318 batting average last season before getting suspended for performance enhancing drugs.  He has a big arm and a big bat, but the defensive and game management skills are lacking a bit.  If Angel can continue to hit around .300 in the minors, however, Milwaukee will be able to overlook his defensive shortcomings and give him a call to the bigs.

  Jonathan Lucroy is also a strong possibility for this category, but Angel’s offensive skills trump Lucroy.  Jonathan is not a stalwart behind the plate either, but he is improving drastically.  Do not count out Jonathan Lucroy for the starting catcher role in 2011, but you can expect Angel Salome to be donning the gear for Milwaukee.

First Base: Prince Fielder

• Prince will be starting at first base for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2011.  Does anybody honestly expect anything different here?  He may actually not be in Milwaukee for all of 2011.  When he is, however, Prince will play.  No questions asked.

Second Base:  Rickie Weeks

• The Milwaukee Brewers seem committed to giving Rickie every chance to succeed at second base.  He is a prolific run scorer (as discussed in Wednesday’s Round ‘em Up), but he is mediocre defensively and strikes out too much.  If Rickie’s struggles do not subside either in 2008 or 2009, the Brewers may decide to trade him.

  The problem is that the Crew does not have anyone to step in and fill Rickie’s shoes.  Hernan Iribarren did play second base before getting moved to the outfield.  I expect that defensive change to be permanent though.  One player that has been receiving some hype has been the newly-drafted, Eric Farris.  I have not seen him play, but all reports say that he is extremely solid in all aspects of his game.  He may be someone to look out for at second base.  Besides that, Milwaukee has no one on the horizon.  Rickie seems to have second locked up fairly securely unless Doug Melvin goes out-of-system to find a replacement.

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar

• Doug Melvin, Ned Yost, Gord Ash, and everyone important in the Brewers organization love this kid.  His glove work is superb at short.  His arm is more like a cannon shooting the ball to first base.  Spring Training in 2008 saw Alcides make a handfull of highlight-caliber plays look incredibly easy.  He has struggled defensively a bit to start the season in Huntsville (7 errors), but history points to those numbers being an aberration.  Offensively, the slick-fielding Alcides does not offer any power or plate discipline, but his batting average has been solid every season.  In 2007, he batted a combined .306 in both Brevard and Huntsville.

  Because of the love fest surrounding Escobar, I do not see J.J. Hardy playing shortstop for the Brewers in 2011.  Hardy will be free agency-eligible at this point in his career, but I believe Hardy will probably be traded before the Brewers lose him to free agency.  Unless he can prove that last year’s power-output and offensive prowess is the norm rather than a one-year wonder, the light will dim on Hardy’s time in Milwaukee by 2011.

Third Base: Mat Gamel

• Bill Hall looks to have found a home at third base in 2008.  Unfortunately, the emergence of Mat Gamel the past couple of seasons will prompt the Brewers not to pick up Hall’s team option in 2011.  Hall may even be traded in 2009/2010 if Gamel can improve his defense enough to get the starting job early.

  Speaking of Gamel’s defense, it is almost epically bad.  Last season, Gamel had 53 errors at third base and finished with a .826 fielding percentage at the hot corner.  That’s right, 53 errors.  And you thought Ryan Braun was bad at third base.  Nobody questions Mat’s ability to hit.  He flat out mashes the baseball.  In pitcher-friendly Brevard County last year, he hit 9 home runs, drove in 60 runs, and posted a .300 batting average.  This season, Mat is putting up video game numbers.  He’s hitting .372/.438/.628 with 5 home runs and 27 RBI through 32 games.  With those numbers, a big league job at third calls his name if he can improve his fielding percentage to something like .880.  That’s how gifted he is at the plate.

  Taylor Green could give Mat a run for his money, however.  The Player of the Year in 2007 for the Brewers organization, Taylor combines hitting for average with fine defensive play.  His power is nothing special and would need to improve to warrant a big league job, but he is still one to watch.  If the Brewers are truly in a pinch, they could consider moving Green to second base to replace Rickie Weeks in 2011 or 2012.

Left Field: Ryan Braun

• Ryan Braun is the left fielder of the future for Milwaukee.  That is evidenced by Matt LaPorta switching to right field.  If the Brewers were going to make room for LaPorta by moving Ryan, LaPorta would still be playing left in the minors.  That is not the case.  You do the math.

Center Field: Corey Hart

• Corey could stay at right field, and Ryan Braun could move to center field.  That is certainly a possibility.  I do not foresee that happening, however.  Hart has better speed than Braun and has more experience in the outfield.  His tall, lanky frame could lead to much better coverage in center.  The big, accurate arm that Hart sports in right would immediately become elite if placed in center field.  The offensive output from center field would also immediately become far above average if Hart is placed in center, but Braun would provide that offensive boost as well.  I favor Hart for center field because his instincts are far better in the field than Braun’s, but that is expected since Ryan has never played the outfield before 2008.

  Tony Gwynn Jr. is an intriguing possibility in center.  He provides a left-handed bat that could fit very well in the lead-off spot, and his defense is top-notch.  Gwynn does need to prove he can handle the bat a bit better before I could consider starting him over Braun or Hart in center field.  In fact, even if he does start to produce more at the plate, it would still be hart to start him over Braun or Hart.  A trade could be in Gwynn’s future.  Hernan Iribarren has transitioned nicely to center field.  Hernan is more of a bench player, however.  I cannot see him wiggling his way into a starting role if LaPorta, Hart, Braun, and Gwynn are all candidates for outfield spots.  Finally, Darren Ford could be a possibility if he can improve his offense in the minors.  His speed is ridiculous and causes opposing teams fits on the basepaths.  I suspect he will not be able to make the big league squad in 2011.  That does not mean you all should not keep an eye on him though.

Right Field: Matt LaPorta

• .342/.436/.721, 10 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 36 RBI in 31 games.  Do I need to say anything else?  He can rake and will be in the big leagues before 2011.  The knock on LaPorta has been his defense, but he has not made an error in the field in his professional career.  In fact, LaPorta has four outfield assists thus far in 2008.  So much for the critics that said he could not play in the outfield.

#1 Starter: Yovani Gallardo

• If Yo can bounce back from tearing his ACL and still be the same pitcher, he will be the ace of the rotation in 2011.  The Brewers simply cannot afford to pay Ben Sheets what he will demand.  Nor should they want to with all the concerns about him and injuries.

#2 Starter: Manny Parra

• Manny has spun his wheels to start the 2008 season.  Posting a 5.86 ERA in six starts thus far, Brewers fans are beginning to question all the hype surrounding Parra.  Yes, he is struggling big time in the majors to start the year, but do not question his ability.  His command is normally solid (it has certainly not been in 2008), and he has four legitimate big league pitches.  The low-to-mid 90s fastball, big curveball, splitter, and change-up give him four pitches to play with at any point in the count.  Manny will be in the rotation in 2011, do not worry.

#3 Starter: Jeremy Jeffress

• Jeremy is currently serving his 50-game suspension for marijuana use.  The good news is that it will keep the hard-throwing Jeffress to a reasonable pitch count this season.  If he can keep away from the drugs, Jeremy will make the big leagues in 2009 or 2010.  His fastball can touch 100 mph.  The offspeed pitches do need some work, but he has systematically worked his way through the Brewers system thus far.  I do not expect that trend to change.  Jeremy Jeffress has a special arm, and it will be in the starting rotation in 2011.

#4 Starter: Carlos Villanueva

• Carlos is not dominant.  He is, however, smart on the mound.  His change-up is devastating to opposing batters.  It makes his high-80s fastball seem much faster.  Carlos has shown savvy on the mound beyond his years last season, and he looks to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.  The beginning of the 2008 season has not treated Villanueva kindly, but I look for him to bounce back in the next couple weeks.  Carlos belongs in the starting rotation.

#5 Starter: Steve Hammond

• This prediction is a little more difficult to back up with evidence.  The big lefty dominated minor league hitters in his first two seasons, but Steve took a big step back in 2007 in Huntsville.  The new season looks to have rejuvenated Hammond, and he appears to have found his old form.  In 39.1 innings pitched, Steve has 45 strikeouts and a 3.20 ERA.  I simply believe that Steve has found his old form, his true form, and will continue to progress in Huntsville and Nashville.  He may simply be a personal favorite, but I see Steve at the back-end of the rotation to start 2011.  His high strikeout rate and the fact that he is a lefty gives that prediction some validity.

  Zach Braddock could also make a run at the starting rotation in 2011.  He has already received a promotion to Brevard County in this young season.  In 2007, as a 19-year old, Zach started nine games and posted a 1.15 ERA with 68 strikeouts in 47 innings.  That is a sick number of strikeouts for a 19-year old.  He did have some arm troubles last season, so the team shut him down.  Thus far in 2008, Zach has been limited in his innings, but he does have 16 strikeouts in 9 innings pitched.  He could be something special.

Closer: Omar Aguilar

• Omar has a 0.55 ERA in 16.1 innings out of the bullpen for Brevard County.  With 10 saves already in this young season, Omar has shot up the prospect charts in the Milwaukee organization.  His fastball reportedly has touched triple digits, and his offspeed pitches are improving.  The Brewers are obviously grooming him to be a closer in the big league bullpen.  I expect a promotion to Huntsville in the next month if Aguilar keeps this fine pitching up.

  Luis Pena will make a strong case for himself in 2011.  The fastball-slider reliever has quickly become a personal favorite of Ned Yost.  Luis has a blistering fastball, and his slider is improving immensely.  Some thought he had a shot to make the big league ‘pen in 2008, and he may get a call-up in September.  He has struggled to start the season, but I look for him to improve in the coming months.

  Rob Bryson is also a candidate.  The 20-year old had a 2.67 ERA with 70 Ks in 54 innings last season.  He has not found so much success with West Virginia this year, but his strikeout rate has remained fantastic.  The control seems to have left him a bit in 2008, as evidenced by his 8 walks thus far in 2008.  Compare that to 12 walks all of 2007.  Rob is not necessarily a darkhorse for the closer’s job either.  Tom Haudricourt has him penned in as the closer for Milwaukee in a couple years.

As you can see, the Brewers have a wealth of internal options in the coming seasons.  This year’s draft will also replenish the farm system with quality talent, with many of the first picks most likely being pitchers.  These prognostications obviously do not include anyone outside the organization, so it is foolish to believe that this is how the roster will look in 2011.  With that said, this roster does not look all that bad.  Brewers fans certainly have bright seasons to look forward to in the coming years.

Round ‘em Up: OPENING DAY!

Happy Opening Day to everyone!!! The Milwaukee Brewers and Ben Sheets will take on the Chicago Cubs and Carlos Zambrano at 1:20 to start the season. I personally am a little sad that the Crew is battling the Cubs so often in the beginning of the season, as it would be more fun down the stretch. Plus, Chicago will not see Mike Cameron as often. Oh well, on to the Round ‘em Up for the day:

• The Milwaukee JS reports the Prince Fielder is expected to play today, even though he is still a bit under the weather. It does not explicitly say that in the article, but when it says that Prince is “feeling a little better,” it’s not too hard to figure out that he’s still sick. Still, Prince at 75% is better than 100% of Mike Rivera or Joe Dillon playing first base.The JS also runs down the final cuts and the Brewers final 25-man roster. I didn’t post it yesterday because I thought everyone already knew the roster, but I’ve gotten a few emails asking. Here you go.
• I have a plethora of predictions for you today.The Hardball Times predicts the winners in each division. The Brewers get a pretty good showing in these lists. The Reds also get some love here. Who knew?! The Baseball Savant has the Cincinnati Reds taking the division, while Milwaukee is stuck in second place. The best part (and by best, I mean funniest part) is that he has the Pittsburgh Pirates taking fourth in front of Houston and St. Louis. Oh, and that the youth of Milwaukee’s rotation makes it unreliable, but Cincinnati’s young pitchers are sure-fire studs. Good logic there.

  David Pinto from Baseball Musings has the Brewers winning the division by a good amount. He says that the young Brewers should continue to get better, and the starting rotation is not as bad as everyone thinks. Another interesting tidbit is that David believes that Milwaukee’s talent is so good that if they do not win the division, Ned Yost should be canned.

  John Sickels from Minor League Ball has many predictions for this upcoming season. Ryan Braun and Corey Hart will compete for the NL Batting Title. It is nice to see Corey getting some love in these previews. What else does John say? Your 2008 Milwaukee Brewers will be in the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. John has the Crew losing in 5 games, but it still made my day. Actually, a Brewers win against the Cubs would make my day…

• John Donovan from SI.com has his 10 Fearless Predictions of the ‘08 season. Prediction number two: Ryan Braun will have a better season in ‘08 than he did in ‘07. That is a big prediction, but statistics say that it could definitely happen. Ryan has performed well this spring, and he will be in the bigs for a month longer than in ‘07. His stats can certainly improve. Will they? I doubt it. Not because of ability, but because pitchers will be much more careful with him. Ryan’s best friend this season could be Corey Hart. If Corey can provide protection behind Ryan this season, Braun could put up MVP caliber numbers.
• RealGM Baseball says that Carlos Villanueva was one of the 10 best pitchers of this spring. If Manny Parra wouldn’t have struggled in his final outing, he could have made that list as well.
• Do you need a stress reliever? Play Whack-A-Cub! See how many Cubs you can whack in 30 seconds. I got 41 Cubs in 30 seconds. Wonderful!
• Jeff Sackmann of Brew Crew Ball has an interview with a Cubs blogger. Normally I would have been appalled by this, but the blogger is not overly biased and is intelligent. Quite a refreshing thing for a Cubs fan, I must say.

Round ‘em Up: Knuckleballs, Pitching Duel, Narveson

Sorry about the lack of a Round ‘em Up yesterday all.  I was swamped yesterday and just did not have much time to get to the computer.  Here are some of today’s reads:

• Squawking Baseball has a cool idea for an article.  They have an “over-under” projection for every team.  The Milwaukee Brewers are predicted to win over 84.5 games.  In fact, they predict “over” for pretty much every team…
• Remember R.A. Dickey?  He was a starter for Triple-A Nashville last season.  The Seattle Mariners liked the knuckleballer so much that they swiped him in the Rule 5 Draft this season.  Here’s ESPN.com writer Jim Caple with Dickey, and he’s trying to catch his knuckleball.  It’s quite humorous.
• Dugout Central has a March Madness bracket for baseball infielders.  It’s a little goofy in how it is set up, and it seems to be completely arbitrary.  Nonetheless, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun match up in the first round.  The winner?  Ryan Braun.  The author then goes on to say that Ryan Braun will pass Alex Rodriguez sometime in the next couple years.  That’s quite the prediction, but I could see it.
• A couple days ago, I linked to The Baseball Analysts graph on starting pitching and how they categorized them.  It was very interesting stuff.  Today, they have the same categorizing system, but they focus on relief pitchers.  The Brewers have a couple relievers that check in on the list.

  Derrick Turnbow: Above-average strikeout and ground ball rates.  Now if we could just solve his walk problem, he’d be one of the best relievers in the league.
  Eric Gagne: Above-average strikeout rate, but below-average ground ball rate.  Exactly what the Brewers expected when getting Gagne.  He does need to get his change-up working, however.
  Carlos Villanueva: Above-average strikeout rate, below-average ground ball rate.
  Brian Shouse, Guillermo Mota, AND Chris Spurling (yes, that Chris Spurling): Below-average strikeout rates, but above-average ground ball rates.  It’s nice to see Guillermo in that category.
  David Riske: Below-average strikeout and ground ball rates.  This really surprised me, and it does worry me a bit.  He’ll have to get one of those up if he’s going to find success in Miller Park.  It’s not necessarily the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the MLB.

• Chris Narveson has been brilliant this spring.  He’s only given up one run in 15 2/3 innings (0.57 ERA).  In years past, Chris would be pushing for a starting job, but the Brewers are just too deep now.  He did say that he understood that coming in though.

  With that said, he’s putting himself in position to be one of the first Triple-A call-ups if he continues pitching as well as he has.  His cut fastball has been his best pitch this spring, and coaches have been raving about his command with his offspeed stuff.  I have to say that I’ve been very impressed with Narveson.  He may even get a call to be the long man in the bullpen in a couple months.

• Tom Haudricourt handicaps the likelihood of each starter getting a job in the rotation.  Because of the injuries to Yovani Gallardo and Chris Capuano, the field has slipped to just four men to fill three spots.

  Tom has Claudio Vargas and Dave Bush as “locks” for the starting rotation.  Vargas’ lock comes mostly from the fact that he has no options left, so he needs to make the big league squad.  My response to that is that he could be the long man in the bullpen.  Manny Parra is slated to be the fifth man in the rotation, which was nice to see because he’s been absolutely dominant this spring.  That leaves Carlos Villanueva as the odd man out.  People may say he should go back to being a reliever, but Ned Yost said that Carlos is a starter.  The Brewers organization wants to treat him as a starter.  If he does not make the starting rotation, he will be sent back to Triple-A until he is needed.  I guess experience won out over performance after all.

Player Profile: Season Ratings

AKittell posted a comment on the Mike Cameron Player Profile that made a very good point, and I thought that I should clarify what’s going on with the Overall Ratings.

The Overall Rating Scale I’m working with works a little like this…I borrowed it off of a friend of mine, and I realized that I forgot to explain it at the beginning of the series. He does the season ratings for minor league and major league players, so that’s why it’s a little skewed. It’s a little odd, but I like it. It is all relative to the position, as well.

0.0 – 5.0 = minor league talent (obviously varies in between in this, but it’s not relevant to us here)
5.1 – 6.5 = below-average major leaguer
6.6 – 7.5 = average major leaguer
7.6 – 8.5 = above-average major leaguer
8.6 – 10.0 = major league stud

So far we have:

Jason Kendall – 7.0 (average major league catcher)
Prince Fielder – 9.3 (stud)
Rickie Weeks – 8.1 (above-average second baseman)
J.J. Hardy – 7.6 (just above-average shortstop)
Bill Hall – 6.9 (league average third baseman)
Ryan Braun – 9.0 (stud)
Mike Cameron – 8.0 (above-average center fielder)

Hopefully that should help clear up a little of the confusion with the Season Ratings. AKittell is quite right on calling me out on that. Major league average is not a 5.0 as it would be if it was straight 0-10. I completely spaced on explaining the scale that I used to do the ratings. Sorry about that…

Season preview, again

I have another season preview for you all today.  This time, it’s from Beyond the Box Score.

The preview is fairly short and it does not provide too much information, yet the author believes that the Brewers are here to stay for the next couple years.  He implies that the Crew is going to give the NL Central crown a serious run this season, which is always nice to hear.

Another season preview

Here’s a season preview for all you Ned Yost haters out there.  It is all written from the first-person perspective of Ned Yost, and it is fraught with sarcasm and cynicism.  It’s quite funny.

I’ll leave you with this, the last line in the article:

“The fact is, our bullpen could blow a hundred games this year and we’d still win the division.  We still have math on our side.”

Classic.

The pitchers that got away

The Sports Bubbler continued with their preview of the bullpen by analyzing those relief pitchers that Milwaukee either chose not to resign or lost via waivers or free agency.  The list consists of Matt Wise, Fransisco Cordero, Scott Linebrink, Ray King, Greg Aquino, and Elmer Dessens.

Nicholas Zettel does a nice job analyzing the stats, comparing each individual pitcher’s performance in 2007 to their career average.  Fransisco Cordero was obviously much better last year than compared to his career norms, so one would believe that he will regress next year towards the mean.  That again is a good reason why the Brewers were fortunate not to have resigned Coco.

I think most will agree that Matt Wise will be a tough loss for the Crew as well.  Zettel says that Wise performed way above his career marks early in the season, and way below in the second half.  Wise is an extremely solid relief pitcher, but there is just no room in the bullpen this season after all the off-season acquisitions.  Wise will probably pitch very well for the Mets this season.

There is a lot more on the former Brewers in the article.  The analysis actually does not make me wish that the Crew retained any of those pitchers.  Granted Melvin is relying on some bounce back years from a couple veterans (Torres and Gagne), but most pitchers will regress to the mean.  This year’s bullpen should be better.

Interesting lineup

Ned Yost came to a news conference yesterday with a very interesting potential batting lineup. It would have Kendall batting 9th behind the pitchers spot. Braun and Fielder would then bat in the second and third hole, respectively.

Interestingly enough, a post I had about a little over a month ago had a huge layout of all the possible batting orders. Using the Lineup Analysis Tool, the Brewers’ best batting order would have Kendall batting 9th and Prince Fielder batting second. It may be interesting to throw out the traditional way of doing things, but I’m not sold that Ned Yost will to do that quite yet.  If the offense struggles, though, you never know.

There are a lot of good things that can come from Kendall batting 9th, along with Braun and Fielder moving up in the order.  Naturally, Braun and Fielder will get more at-bats than they normally would from the three and four spots.  There is definitely a simplistic advantage in that sense.

More importantly, however, Rickie Weeks will have someone in front of him that can get on base, Jason Kendall.  Rickie has always been projected to be a player to bat in the 3rd or 5th position in the batting order because of his power potential.  This lineup would allow Rickie to bat with batters on base, while still acting as the team’s leadoff hitter.

It needs to be recognized that while this move could be beneficial, it could also lead for many difficult decisions for Ned.  The pitcher’s spot will get more at-bats, meaning the pinch hitter decision will have to be made more often.  That seems minuscule, but come September that will matter much more.

It also puts Braun and Fielder out of their comfort zone, and J.J. Hardy will have to bat in front of the pitcher (which he did very well last season).  It could simply be a lot of tinkering just for the sake of making a change.  I’m not sold on the idea, but it is intriguing.

What do you all think of Kendall batting 9th?

ESPN preview on Milwaukee

Jerry Crasnick from ESPN.com previewed the Milwaukee Brewers today.  He focused on five main questions, rather than a position-by-position analysis.

I liked this piece a lot.  There is a lot of cautious optimism in the writing tone, which is exactly what Brewers fans are feeling.  Things could be great this year, but only if the question marks turn out to be exclamation points.

Like I’ve always been saying, it’s nothing new, but it is still a good read.  Give it a look.

Breaking down ZIPS projections

The ZIPS projection system is perhaps the most widely used prognostication tool for baseball, and it just became available to the public the other day. I thought I would break down the projections a little bit.

Offense

C – Jason Kendall – .257/.332/.313, 2 HR, 47 RBI, 5 SB, 51 K
1B – Prince Fielder – .282/.380/.571, 44 HR, 106 RBI, 4 SB, 123 K
2B – Rickie Weeks – .254/.363/.422, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 23 SB, 117 K
SS – J.J. Hardy – .262/.318/.421, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 1 SB, 55 K
3B – Bill Hall – .270/.336/.475, 20 HR, 69 RBI, 8 SB, 135 K
LF – Ryan Braun – .294/.332/.554, 33 HR, 93 RBI, 15 SB, 113 K
CF – Mike Cameron – .254/.341/.447, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 17 SB, 123 K
RF – Corey Hart – .289/.353/.518, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 22 SB, 112 K

Two things are obvious when analyzing these projections. The Brewers will hit a lot of home runs this season, and they will also strike out a lot. Stop me if you’ve heard these statements before concerning the Milwaukee Brewers. I thought so.

Jason Kendall may not hit a lot of home runs, or hardly any at all, but he will get on base for the Brewers. In fact, he is projected to have the same OBP as Ryan Braun! He is also projected to strikeout less than any Brewers’ starter. That is exactly what Milwaukee’s lineup needs. They need a battler, a scrappy hitter. Kendall is looking to be a much better acquisition than most people had originally thought. I am including myself in that category too.

On that same vein, Ryan Braun will have a better OBP than .332. I understand that he only had 29 walks last season, but that stems from two different factors. Ryan batted in front of Prince Fielder, meaning he saw plenty of good pitches to hit. Opposing pitchers were not about to walk Ryan Braun when they see Prince standing in the on-deck circle. Last year was also Ryan’s first year in the big leagues. It is easy to expect the world of Ryan because he had a rookie season for the ages. With some experience, his plate discipline should improve. He’s addressed the issue this off-season, and he said that he knows that he must become more patient at the plate. Expect Ryan’s batting average to drop this year a bit as pitchers have had an entire off-season to analyze his strengths and weaknesses, but expect that OBP to increase. Ryan is a beast and everyone in the MLB knows that.

The projections are generally pretty good otherwise. There are small quibbles that I have still, like Rickie Weeks‘ low batting average. If the experts are correct and last September is any indication of things to come, Rickie should have a breakout season this year. His OBP should stay high, but his batting average should climb as well. Yes, you can say that I am jumping on the Rickie Weeks bandwagon if you would like.

The last thing I would like to mention is the fact that ZIPS projects J.J. Hardy to have a rough year. Those 15 home runs sound about right for J.J., but I find this projection to be a bit low. J.J.’s power should decline, but he should start hitting more singles and doubles. J.J. is becoming more of a complete hitter every year. He showed last season that he is not afraid to go to the opposite field, which should help him immensely this season. I expect Hardy’s growth as a hitter to continue this year, even if his power numbers should drop.

The Brewers’ lineup is going to strike fear into pretty much any opposing pitcher this season. They have power coming from almost any position on the diamond, and the combination of Prince and Braun in the middle of the lineup should continue to be dominant. They will need to cut down on the strikeouts, so they do not go through sustained offensive droughts like they did last season. That said, however, the Baby Brewers are growing up. Expect the offense to thrive again this season.

Starting Pitching

RHP – Ben Sheets – 11-7 W-L, 3.72 ERA, 145 IP, 128 K
RHP – Yovani Gallardo – 14-10 W-L, 3.66 ERA, 192 IP, 169 K
RHP – Jeff Suppan – 10-12 W-L, 4.76 ERA, 187 IP, 111 K
RHP – Carlos Villanueva – 8-9 W-L, 4.46 ERA, 111 IP, 89 K
RHP – Dave Bush – 10-12 W-L, 4.64 ERA, 192 IP, 134 K
LHP – Chris Capuano – 12-12 W-L, 4.48 ERA, 195 IP, 154 K
RHP – Claudio Vargas – 8-11 W-L, 4.99 ERA, 146 IP, 113 K
LHP – Manny Parra – 7-6 W-L, 4.31 ERA, 119 IP, 84 K

If one went by these projections, the starting rotation SHOULD be Gallardo, Sheets, Parra, Villanueva, and Capuano. This, of course, would be ignoring the innings pitched category that is also very important.

I understand that these projections are largely average-based, so the low IP count for Villanueva and Parra make sense. One can expect either of those pitchers to throw for plenty more innings if they make the starting rotation.

Whether or not Gallardo is back in time for the season opener, Doug Melvin should seriously consider trading Claudio Vargas. With all the off-days and such during the first month of the season, one could get away with a four-man rotation until about mid-April. By then, Gallardo should be back and healthy. Tom Haudricourt has written that Yovani is targeting a April 22nd comeback. That would allow the Brewers to get a couple prospects for Vargas.

With this projection and the way Claudio pitched for the Crew last season, there is unfortunately no spot for him on the team. The only reason he had even a respectable win-loss record is the fact that he had the highest average run support of any Brewers pitcher throughout the season. His ERA is a much better indicator of his true ability, rather than his record.

People have argued that Claudio would make a fine long-man for Milwaukee this season. I would argue that Claudio was largely ineffective even from the pen. In 6 appearances from the bullpen last season, Claudio was 1-2 and gave up 9 runs in 11.2 innings of work. That is not the efficiency needed from the long-man position. He would be much better served to bring in a couple prospects for the farm system that has largely been depleted because of the high graduation rate of Brewers’ prospects to the big league squad.

Milwaukee could even make this trade and still move Manny Parra to Triple-A Nashville, if he does not make the starting rotation that is. Parra has been compared to Roy Oswalt because of his great command and large arsenal of pitches to work with. John Sickels even wrote that Parra is a darkhorse candidate for the Rookie of the Year in the NL. Milwaukee may be wise to start him in Triple-A, but Manny has proven that he belongs in the big leagues. If he pitches lights out in Spring Training, expect to see him in a Brewers uniform Opening Day.

Relief Pitching

RHP – Eric Gagne – 2-1 W-L, 3.60 ERA, 30 IP, 31 K
RHP – Derrick Turnbow – 5-5 W-L, 4.08 ERA, 64 IP, 71 K
RHP – David Riske – 3-2 W-L, 3.80 ERA, 64 IP, 54 K
RHP – Salomon Torres – 4-4 W-L, 3.94 ERA, 80 IP, 56 K
RHP – Guillermo Mota – 2-3 W-L, 5.06 ERA, 64 IP, 52 K
LHP – Brian Shouse – 2-1 W-L, 4.21 ERA, 47 IP, 31 K

All of these projections seem to suggest that the bullpen will fair pretty well this year for Milwaukee. That is, all except Guillermo Mota. ZIPS projects Guillermo to come in with a 5.06 ERA for the Crew this upcoming season. That would be a little difficult to take, and he would not be on the big league squad for long with those numbers. One can certainly see why these numbers are plausible for Mota. He is the weakest link in the Milwaukee bullpen, and I see Randy Choate, Mitch Stetter, or even Seth McClung giving Guillermo a run for his money this spring. The baseball gods have not shone brightly on Guillermo lately. Perhaps he still has some fuel left in the tank, though. Brewers fans certainly hope so.

Eric Gagne looks to pitch just fine this upcoming season. The ERA is a little too high for my liking, but only because Gagne is switching to the National League, which is notoriously more friendly to pitchers. His ERA should be a little lower just because of that fact alone. Being out of the bright lights of Boston should also help Eric regain the form he showed early in the season last year.

Overall

The Milwaukee Brewers still have an offense to be reckoned with. There is no question that the power stroke will be there for the Crew and that they will be near the league leaders in home runs again this season. The addition of Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron should help the OBP rise a little bit, as well, and Rickie Weeks could be a wild card that could push this team over the top. This offense should still scare every pitching staff in the NL Central, and it should be able to keep them in most games.

The starting rotation will be very solid for the Brewers this season, but it has the potential to be well above-average. The youngsters for the Crew (Gallardo, Villanueva, and Parra) could provide a big lift for the rotation, and the addition of pitcher-friendly Jason Kendall should even help the veterans improve. Assuming that Gallardo can come back without missing too much of the regular season, Milwaukee’s starting rotation has the chance to shut some teams down. Combine that with a powerful offense, and a playoff team is born.

The bullpen conservatively projects to simply be average, also with the potential to be very good if Gagne and Torres can bounce back nicely. The addition of Torres, Riske, and Mota should take some of the pressure and workload off Derrick Turnbow as well, which could (crossing my fingers here) help his consistency tremendously. Riske should also be a stabilizing force in the back half of the pen, as his signing was one of the most under-appreciated moves of the off-season.

The Milwaukee Brewers will be competitive this season if these projections prove true. Whether or not the Crew will be able to overtake the Cubs is yet to be seen, but the offense should keep them in position to challenge in the Wild Card race as well. I have never been so excited for a Brewers season to start, and their Spring Training debut is just around the corner. The Brewers will be fun to watch again this season with their offensive fireworks and the young arms that could prove to make a huge contribution and make this season one to remember.

PECOTA has Milwaukee taking second in Central

The PECOTA standings came out today (via Baseball Prospectus). According to the projections, the Brewers will be unable to overtake the Cubs down the stretch. Here are the first three spots in the NL Central:

Team W L RS RA BA OBP SLG Chicago Cubs 89 73 845 759 .274 .343 .452 Milwaukee Brewers 87 75 829 765 .263 .339 .450 Cincinnati Reds 79 83 772 794 .263 .334 .429

The perceived pitching advantage that Chicago has over Milwaukee does not seem to impress PECOTA. Chicago has the advantage in the Runs Against category, but only by 6 runs. Compare that to Cincinnati’s projection, and Milwaukee’s pitching is projected to be very solid this year.

PECOTA must believe that Chicago added some major power this off-season because the projections have Chicago out-slugging the Brewers. This seems a little off, as the Cubs only added Fukudome this off-season, and he does not project to bring too many home runs to the line-up.

Overall, a 87-75 record from the Brewers would be a very solid season. Although PECOTA has the Crew finishing second to the Cubs in the NL Central, a 87-75 record would be very competitive in the NL Wild Card race.

MLB Power Rankings

FOX Sports revealed its first MLB Power Rankings for the ‘08 season today. There are a few questionable rankings on the list, but it’s quite an interesting list overall.

The Milwaukee Brewers check in at #12, which makes them tentatively the fifth best team in the National League. Where are the Cubs? Chicago makes the list at #14. Aram Tolegian likes the upside of the Brewers, and expects a healthy Sheets and Weeks, along with the key addition of Mike Cameron, to push the young team over the top.

He does mention that Spring Training will be key for Milwaukee. Not because of key position battles, but because of health concerns. Tolegian says that “healthy” and “Milwaukee” are not commonly found in the same sentence, and fans should cross their fingers that Spring Training is injury free. If the Brewers are able to escape Spring Training without any key injuries, Tolegian expects them to be the favorite in the NL Central.

One issue I had with how the rankings are set is the placement of the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are #22 on the list, which puts them behind both the Cardinals and the Astros. The Reds have incredible upside to their rotation with the likes of Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez, and everyone knows they have the offensive firepower to match anyone. Add Francisco Cordero and Jeremy Affeldt to the mix, and Cincy could make some noise this year.

The other issue I have is that the Houston Astros are ranked #18. You can rave about the trade for Jose Valverde all you want. You can even claim that Miguel Tejada will come back rejuvenated and belt 30 HRs. Even if both of those are true (I would argue that the Tejada trade was one of the worst of the off-season), just take a look at their starting rotation. Roy Oswalt is a stud, but their #2 starter is Wandy Rodriguez. And you thought the Brewers had starting pitching issues last season…

Dempster says Cubs will win it all

ESPN.com reports that Ryan Dempster openly predicted that the Cubs will win the World Series this year.  Most playoff teams believe that they can win the World Series, so it is not shocking that he feels that way.  It is surprising that he would put the bulls-eye on the Cubs back this early.

“Like you believe it, you really do,” Dempster added. “Enough of all the … you know the curse this, the curse that, the goat this, the black cat, the 100 years, whatever it is. We’re a better team than we were last year, I truly believe. And last year we made it to the playoffs.”

All I have to say is that this give the Brewers a little fuel to feed on…

Cubs over Milwaukee in 2008?

Tim posted a comment the other day that asked for a little elaboration on why the Cubs have been picked over the Brewers in many projections this year. I’m more than happy to answer questions you all have, so I’ve gathered some information to try to explain it a bit.

First off, I would like to point out that many people are choosing the Cubs over the Brewers because Milwaukee has a “history” of collapsing at the end of the season. They look at the last couple seasons as evidence that the Brewers cannot close on a division title. While that holds some credence, I think it’s a little “big city bias” to believe that the Brewers will always be inferior to the Cubs. Anyway, let’s see what we can glean from these projections…

OFFENSE

It is almost a consensus that Milwaukee’s offense is superior to that of the Cubs. Baseball Prospectus’ NL Central preview says that “this is the most entertaining Brewers team in a quarter-century.” They do argue that the Brewers are too right-handed in their lineup, which nobody is trying to argue against. Even Melvin and Yost have mentioned their concern with the gluttony of right-handed hitters in the starting lineup. This will be tempered in the beginning of the year with either Gwynn or Gross manning center field, but when Cameron comes back, it will be a problem.

Power, however, is not a problem. MLB Rumors has the projections for the Cubs’ offense and for Milwaukee’s. Projections are always a little high for offensive players, but the trend is clear. The Crew has massive amounts of power from all directions (except the catcher’s spot, obviously). Even Dayn Perry (who seems to not care for Milwaukee much) sees the offensive advantage for Milwaukee:

Position	Cubs	Brewers	Edge
Catcher	Geovany Soto	Jason Kendall	Cubs
1st base	Derrek Lee	Prince Fielder	Brewers
2nd base	Mark DeRosa	Rickie Weeks	Brewers
3rd base	Aramis Ramirez	Ryan Braun	Brewers
Shortstop	Ryan Theriot	J.J. Hardy	Brewers
Left field	Alfonso Soriano	Joe Dillon	Cubs
Center field	Felix Pie	Bill Hall	Brewers (barely)
Right field	Kosuke Fukudome	Corey Hart	Push

This is a little off, as it was before Cameron was signed by the Crew. We can make the adjustments though. Moving Braun to LF, I still believe that Braun has the advantage over Soriano. Moving Hall to 3B, however, loses the advantage for the Crew. Aramis Ramirez played extremely well last year. With Hall’s recent slump at the plate, the nod has to go to the Cubs at 3B. Next, we have to put Mike Cameron in CF. Strictly because of plate discipline and power, the advantage is towards the Brewers. Pie is too inconsistent right now, and this graphic is not judging potential. If we were discussing potential, one could argue that Hall could match Ramirez. No, the nod goes to Cameron there. The only problem with Perry’s analysis is that in RF. I don’t know how he can assume Fukudome is going to be able to produce? It’s a wild card. I can see why it would be a push, but Corey’s power and speed would lead me to believe he should get the benefit of the doubt there. However, I’ll stick to Perry’s analysis and go with a push.

Advantage: Milwaukee Brewers

STARTING PITCHING

This is where it begins to get a little fuzzy. Dayn Perry says that if Ben Sheets does not pitch 200 innings this year, starting pitching is a huge edge for the Cubs. He says that the back end of the Cubs’ rotation is potentially problematic, but Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill make up for it by providing a very strong front end of the rotation. The Brewers, on the other hand, apparently only have Gallardo in the starting rotation if Sheets goes down. He takes it for granted that Chicago’s top three balance out the potential advantage the Brewers could have at the back end of the rotation. Milwaukee has eight legitimate MLB-starting pitchers, while Chicago has resorted to plugging Ryan Dempster in their rotation. I’d have a tough time deciding whether I’d like to have Dempster or Vargas, and Vargas is Milwaukee’s 8th best starter.

Brew Crew Ball does a nice analysis of the starting pitching situation:

1. Zambrano vs. Sheets: Give the edge to Carlos for durability reasons. This is a tough one to call, because, as Perry notes, is Sheets is healthy, he could very well be the better of the two.
2. Gallardo vs. Hill: Another tough call: Gallardo has the potential to be more dominant, but we haven’t seen him over the course of a season. Call it a push.
3. Suppan vs. Lilly: A push. A Cubs fan will show up and strongly dispute this, despite not understanding the idea of FIP, in 3, 2, 1…
4. Bush vs. Marquis: last year, Marquis was better; the year before, it was Bush; Bush is younger; I’d say this is a push.
5. Dempster vs. Capuano: Capuano is probably the better pitcher, despite his struggles last year. If Cappy is traded and Vargas gets this spot, it’s a push or a slight edge to the Cubs.
6. Vargas/Villanueva/Parra vs. Marshall/???: Big edge to the Brewers. It’s a safe bet that both of these teams will need 20+ starts from guys outside of their front 5, and the Brewers have at least one guy who would crack a whole lot of MLB rotations.

• This is definitely not a big edge to the Cubs. Nearly everyone routinely underestimates the importance of rotation depth. Doug Melvin does not. Sheets’s fragility is a problem, but I don’t know that there are any teams is baseball better prepared to deal with the loss of their ace than the Brewers.

• It’s impossible to give a final verdict here until Melvin makes a move with the pitching staff, but if Capuano stays, I give the edge to the Crew.

Advantage: Chicago Cubs

(This is complicated though. If Sheets pitches 200 innings, the advantage could go to Milwaukee. I think we all are hesitant to make that assumption though.)

BULLPEN

Dayn Perry’s article is almost useless when it comes to addressing the bullpen.  First of all, he hardly mentions any of the new pitchers the Brewers acquired (although, he does say that Riske is one of the best value buys of the off-season).  I do not understand how one can make a prediction without including the new players.

Perry next concludes that Gagne is a risk while Wood is a dominant closer that the Cubs can count on.  Talk about a “What have you done for me lately?” situation.  Ignoring Gagne’s sub-3.00 ERA in Texas last year is bad enough, but assuming that Kerry Wood is ZERO health risk as well?  If one only looked at the last two months of last year’s season, then sure, that analysis could hold some weight.  Too bad the baseball season is more than the last two months of the season.

Since there is no official comparison between the two, I’ll do a quick-and-dirty comparison:

• Riske = Howry  (This is giving Howry a big benefit of the doubt, mind you.)
• Shouse > Eyre
• Turbow < Marmol
• Torres > Wuertz
• Gagne = Wood

The fact that the Brewers still have Mota, Capuano, Vargas, Parra, and McClung gives Milwaukee much more depth than Chicago.  This will be a big advantage for the Brewers down the stretch.

The wild card in this scenario for Chicago is Carlos Marmol.  He posted a 1.43 ERA in 69.1 innings.  If he is able to continue that type of dominance, he gives the Cubs a deadly 8th inning-9th inning combo.

The deciding factor for Milwaukee could be Eric Gagne.  Analysts like Dayn Perry are expecting Eric Gagne to blow up this season, and therefore, Chicago is getting an edge in their projections.  Other analysts, like The Hardball Times article posted the other day, believe that Eric Gagne can push the Brewers over the top to take the division.  Many of these projections simply depend on the authors’ view of the players.  People that think Gagne will bounce back favor the Brewers, and vice versa.

The bullpens are just too close to call.  Since much of the decision depends on the personal preference on specific pitchers, I am willing to rate the bullpen as a push.

Advantage: Push

OTHER

Defense has been a big topic concerning Milwaukee.  Before the Cameron trade, Chicago obviously had a much better defense than did Milwaukee.  Now, the spread becomes less dramatic.  The Cubs still have the advantage, but it is not as significant anymore.

The bench is not very significant in making projections, but the Brewers have a large edge here.  They are much better equipped to deal with couple injuries.

OVERALL

Advantage: Push

The teams are just too evenly matched to call a clear-cut winner.  The Brewers have younger talent and a much higher ceiling, but the Cubs have the proven talent that has been to the post-season.  If Ben Sheets stays healthy, I think the Brewers have the full advantage.  That’s obviously a big if.  Either way, both clubs are shaping up to be 90+ win teams.  It should be a very, very exciting season.

Tim, this may not help ease your mind about the NL Central predictions, but hopefully it gives you plenty of information to see that both teams are shaping up very nicely.

ESPN Fantasy Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

Eric Karabell from ESPN continued his fantasy team preview series today by focusing on the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s written from a fantasy point of view, but it still has some interesting tidbits of information in it.

Karabell does not think very highly of the Milwaukee Brewers and their system. He thinks that the Crew will always blow any type of lead or any semblance of improvement down the stretch. It is actually rather disheartening to read his comments about Ben Sheets, Bill Hall, Jason Kendall, and Eric Gagne.

Did Karabell have anything positive to say? Only a couple things. He raved about Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the middle of the order. He loves Yovani Gallardo and surprisingly, Manny Parra. Karabell also believes that Matt LaPorta could break into the big leagues this year. We Brewers fans know that’s not going to happen though.

Odds and Ends

Glad to see that everyone has found the new site. Don’t forget there’s a link to this week’s poll on the sidebar!

Now, on to Brewers’ news. Not too much is going on today, but here are some interesting reads:

• It seems that sports writers really do not like Jason Kendall. The Hardball Times just unveiled their “worst infield for the dough,” and Jason Kendall took the honors at catcher. The article is a little misleading, however. It uses last year’s salary numbers, and it only looks at the offensive output from Kendall. The Brewers did not sign him for his bat or his throwing arm. Melvin signed Kendall for the intangibles and his ability to make pitchers better.
• Sports Weekly published its 100 Names You Need to Know in 2008 today. Manny Parra and Mitch Stetter made the list for the Crew. Paul White, author of the article, seems to think that Stetter is above Choate in the bullpen depth chart. I’m not completely sold on that argument, but I think Stetter has the ability to play very well this year if the Brewers give him a chance.Interestingly enough, two former Brewers also made the list, LHP Joe Thatcher and 2B Callix Crabbe. Thatcher was one of the three players Melvin sent to San Diego for Scott Linebrink in the middle of the season last year, and he pitched brilliantly for the Padres last season. In fact, he pitched better than Linebrink did for the Crew after coming to Milwaukee. This is tempered some, however, by the fact that Linebrink gained Milwaukee two draft picks by being a Class A free agent.

  Callix Crabbe always put up very solid numbers in Triple-A Nashville for Milwaukee, but Rickie Weeks blocked his development. I was sad to see Callix go when the Padres drafted him in the Rule 5 draft this year, but it gives him the chance to play in the big leagues. Callix will compete for a utility role on the bench for the Padres this year, and let’s hope he gets it done. Good luck Callix!

• An interesting tool used for projecting offensive capabilities is the Lineup Analysis Tool. The Brewers look to be a very formidable offensive team again this year, with a best-case scenario of 5.22 runs per game. What would that lineup look like according to the Lineup Analysis Tool? Here you are:Weeks, Fielder, Cameron, Braun, Hart, Hall, Hardy, Pitcher, Kendall

  Yes, you read that correctly. This projection tool says our pitchers will have more offensive output than Jason Kendall. This is by no means an exact science, but it is fun to look at. Here are the rest of the projected lineups for the Brewers.

• Adam McCalvy takes a look at the Brewers’ bullpen for 2008. He notes that Melvin did a great job in acquiring many power arms that have 9th inning experience. The article does say that Gagne will be the closer for 2008, no question about it.One other interesting tidbit is that Yost said that he would prefer to have a second lefty in the bullpen to go along with Shouse, Gagne, Riske, Torres, Turnbow, and Mota. This would mean that Yost is looking towards either Mitch Stetter or Randy Choate. Like I said earlier, I think Choate has the advantage in this battle, but Spring Training can change everything.

  If Yost does put Choate or Stetter in the bullpen, it would leave the Crew without a long-relief option. Perhaps Yost is talking about Capuano or Parra in the pen? Who knows… I couple trades are still looming on the horizon for the Brewers with their surplus in starting pitching. It looks like the pitchers will have to bring their A-game in Spring Training. This is the kind of competition the Brewers system has longed to have for many years.

Projections: Brewers pitching

With all the starting jobs for the position players being finalized, the main concern for the Milwaukee Brewers is the starting pitching rotation. Who’s going to start? Who’s going to get traded? Will Parra get sent to the minors? Will Ben Sheets play for most of the year?

We’ve been hearing the questions for a couple months now, and I think it’s time that we look at some projections for Brewers pitching. Using Marcel’s system for 2008, here are the projected statistics for each of the candidates for a starting job:

Ben Sheets – 10-7 W-L, 3.93 ERA, 141 IP, 119 K
Yovani Gallardo - 8-5 W-L, 3.76 ERA, 110 IP, 96 K
Jeff Suppan - 11-9 W-L, 4.62 ERA, 206 IP, 107 K
Carlos Villanueva – 6-4 W-L, 3.97 ERA, 93 IP, 76 K
Chris Capuano - 8-10 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 155 IP, 126 K
Carlos Vargas - 10-8 W-L, 4.95 ERA, 154 IP, 106 K
Dave Bush – 10-10 W-L, 4.55 ERA, 172 IP, 126 K
Manny Parra - 2-2 W-L, 4.11 ERA, 46 IP, 37 K

I know these are very crude projections. They are mostly averages that take into account the league average and age, yet it gives us a nice starting point to make comparisons.

It’s time for BrewersNation to make their cases for who should be in the starting rotation. You all have been quiet for a few days now, and its time to start the banter. What do you think?

Here’s what I have — Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, and Bush.

Here’s why — Sheets, Gallardo, and Suppan are all locks. Villanueva has garnered high praise from Yost and Melvin, and he seems to have his foot in the door. It seemed like the Brewers were more comfortable with Villy in the starting rotation at the end of the year. Melvin has said that Carlos pitched very well at the beginning of the season in the bullpen and that the Crew may need his presence there again this year. I don’t think that’s going to happen, however.

Finally, the last spot is a tough choice. I would really like to see Parra in the final spot. It would first give us a lefty at the end of the rotation, so we are not so right-handed in our starting 5. But more importantly, I believe that Parra is the best pitcher out of the remaining candidates. With that said, however, Parra will probably be sent to Nashville to keep his arm out of trouble. He’s been very injury prone, and the Brewers want to be careful with Manny while they can afford to do so.

Being reinforced by Melvin’s words the other day, Bush is a strong candidate for the fifth spot. He has the most potential out of any other pitcher left, besides Parra. He does have the tendency to pitch brilliantly for 5 innings and blow up in the sixth, I admit it, but Bush has a fastball with a lot of movement and a nice curve when he can get to it. I would consider Capuano, but I believe he’ll be traded before the season starts. I didn’t even consider Vargas for the last spot, if you were wondering.

Now it’s your turn. What do you think BrewersNation?

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