Monday’s Round ‘em Up

I have today’s Round ‘em Up for you.  The final one before the regular season starts tomorrow in Japan.  Lets see what we have:

• Tom Haudricourt breaks down some of the roster decisions that Milwaukee will have to make.  Most of them I completely agree with, but I do wish that Carlos Villanueva could make the starting rotation.  I don’t know who he would replace though.  Claudio Vargas needs to be in the rotation because he has no options left.  I would say that he should be the long man in the pen, but Seth McClung seems to have that spot wrapped up.

  It will be interesting to see who gets bumped out when Yovani Gallardo gets back into the rotation.  I feel like Manny Parra may be the victim, as Ned Yost seems reluctant to send Dave Bush anywhere.  Ned does want a lefty in the rotation though, so I’m not completely sure what will happen.  If Manny pitches well for the first couple starts, he’ll be in the rotation when Yo comes back.

• Beyond the Boxscore thinks that Derrick Turnbow is one of the most unlucky pitchers in the bigs.  The stats say that his WHIP goes way up after runners get on base, and apparently that makes Derrick unlucky.  To me, that simply means that Derrick gets ungodly worse when a runner gets on first.  He’ll obviously have to work on that.
• Seamheads.com has an NL Central preview.  The problem?  They forgot to pick a winner.
• If you are interested, RealGM Baseball previews the Chicago Cubs.  Apparently, Kosuke Fukudome and Jon Lieber are going to make a very big difference.  In fact, they think that Fukudome should bat third.  I know the Cubs will be good, but it’s obvious that a Cubs fan wrote this.
• Are you confused about Chris Capuano’s injury?  Baseball Digest Daily breaks down the injury and explains what Chris will need to do to rehab his elbow.  It does not sound fun.

Capuano likely to have surgery

Everyone thought that Chris Capuano simply had tendinitis in his throwing elbow.  Turns out it is much more than that.

Chris has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow.  He will seek a third opinion from another doctor, but it seems likely that he’ll have season-ending surgery.  It looks to be the same ligament that Chris injured while pitching in Arizona.

I feel really bad for Cappy, as he logged many good innings for the Crew before struggling last season.  Chris sounds very reluctant to go through another rehab session.  It took him 10 months to get back on the mound the last time, and he simply does not want to go through that again.

It looks like the starting rotation decisions just got a lot easier.

JS Notes: Capuano, Weeks, Katin

Sorry this will be so short this morning, but I have to run.  Perhaps I’ll have time later today to get you a full-out Round ‘em Up.  Here are some Journal Sentinel goodies for you:

• The Brewers wiped the floor with Seattle yesterday, beating them 17-3.  Chris Capuano left the game in the fourth inning because of soreness in his elbow.  It’s beginning to look more and more like Cappy will either start the year in Triple-A or on the DL.  Either way, it seems clear that Chris Capuano will not be in the starting rotation on Opening Day.

  Brendan Katin had a huge day against the Mariners.  Katin, a former teammate of Ryan Braun at Miami, went 3-6 with a home run and six RBI.  Not a bad day for a player who had not played in a Spring Training game yet in ‘08.  I wouldn’t get too excited about Katin though, he’s not played above Double-A and he’s 25 years old.  He has zero plate discipline and strikes out too much, even for a Brewer.

  Corey Hart seems to have found his stroke.  He finished the day 2-4 with two RBI and two runs scored.  Perhaps he’s finding his swing just in time for Opening Day.  Don’t even say “See? I told you so.”  Rickie Weeks is still struggling way too much and is on the shelf with hyper-extended fingers.

• In the other game, Milwaukee tied the Chicago White Sox after 10 innings.  Neither team was able to break the 4-4 tie, so the game was just called.

  Mike Cameron and Gabe Gross supplied all the offense on a home run a piece.  Cameron hit a three-run shot that tied the game up in the 5th, and it was a pitcher’s duel after that.

  Carlos Villanueva got knocked around for the first time this spring.  He gave up four runs, only three earned, in five innings of work.  Guillermo Mota pitched two scoreless innings to follow that to continue his nice spring.

• The last article I have for you is about Rickie Weeks and how he is pressing too much.  Surprised?  I didn’t think so.  The interesting information in the article is that Doug Melvin said that Milwaukee will most likely not make a trade this spring if things do not heat up.  He said that people are looking internally to fix their problems.  They don’t want to give up the prospects, which is always difficult to do.

Categorizing Pitchers

The Baseball Analysts have a great article up today that classifies pitchers according to their strikeout and ground ball tendencies.  Naturally, it says that pitchers who have above-average strikeout rates and ground ball rates are going to be the elite pitchers of the game.  The Brewers, unfortunately, have nobody that makes that category.  Ben Sheets seems like he should make that list because he is an elite pitcher, but he is more of a fly-ball pitcher.  The biggest surprise from that category?  Tampa’s Edwin Jackson.

Milwaukee did have pitchers in the next best category, however.  Ones that have an above-average strikeout rate and a below-average ground ball rate.  Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Chris Capuano, and Dave Bush make the list here.  Bush’s strikeout rate is why the Brewers have stuck with him for so long.  He has the potential to be a solid starter.  He can simply not get away from the big inning.

Jeff Suppan makes the list as a pitcher who has above-average ground ball rates, but a below-average strikeout rate.  The Brewers defense really hurt Soup last season.  He hasn’t gotten much better this spring, either.

Thankfully, the Brewers did not have anyone in the awful quadrant, below-average ground ball rate and strikeout rate.  These are the pitchers that cannot make people miss, yet they always give up fly balls.  They are very home run-prone.  Surprisingly, Curt Schilling falls into this category.

It’s a very, very interesting article.  You should give it a look!  Who knows…maybe you’ll get some ideas for a good pitcher for your fantasy league this season.  On that note, it looks like there is not enough interest in a BrewersNation Fantasy Baseball League.  Sorry to all those that committed to playing.  We’ll try again next season.

Round ‘em Up: Capuano, Yost, Sheet, Parra

Here’s a little linkage for you today:

• Tom Haudricourt shoots down the internet rumor that the Red Sox were interested in Chris Capuano. What would the Brewers be getting back? The report said Coco Crisp. That would be one of the stupidest deals Melvin could make. Tom did mention that he is now actively shopping his surplus of pitching. Probably not a coincidence that this report comes out after Yovani Gallardo showed great improvement after throwing off a mound for the first time since his surgery.
• A little something for all you Ned Yost haters out there. Bobby Cox recently reacted to Yost’s idea to batting Jason Kendall in the ninth slot. What was the quotation?“[Bleeping] Ned, he got into the stats - look out,” said Cox, who loves Yost, but isn’t quite on the same page as the younger manager when it comes to innovative use of stats.

  All Brewers fans know that Yost gets too tangled up in stats sometimes, as we all tend to do. Obviously, Bobby Cox is not a big fan of Ned’s new managerial style. Remember that Yost worked with Cox in Atlanta, so Ned’s not getting high praise from his mentor.

  Credit goes to KL Snow at Brew Crew Ball for the find on this link.  If you don’t include him in your daily reads, you’re missing out!  Check his work out!!!

• The Sports Bubbler has an article from the fan’s perspective in Maryvale. It loosely follows one person’s experience visiting Spring Training.
• Ben Sheets is still working on that elusive change up. The Brewers organization says that he’s working on it every single year, but he never throws it in game time situations. Ned Yost says to look for that to change this year, as Ben’s change up looks the best it ever has.
• Manny Parra gets some more love from the sports world. Today, Dugout Central goes over the best prospects in Spring Training, and Manny gets the nod for the Brewers. The “Manny Movement” is growing by the day.

Today’s Links: 3/11

Well, I’ve just finished rounding up some links for you all this morning.  There are a good amount today, but I’m going to cram them all into one post.  Enjoy!

•  Corey Hart is getting some love today in the blogging world.  John Sickels from Minor League Ball does a great write-up on Corey, tracking his career through the minor leagues and projecting where he’s going to go afterwards.  John does mention that Corey has been compared to many Hall of Famers.  Not a projection, he says…just something to think about.

  Baseball Digest Daily also did a little profile piece on Corey.  They say that most Brewers fans forgot about him during the year and focused on Braun and Fielder.  This may be true in some sense, but the true Brewers fan understands how vital Corey is to the Brewers’ success.  Give it a look.

• People around baseball are starting to notice Manny Parra.  We Brewers fans have been singing his praises since last year.
• Tom Haudricourt talks about how Jason Kendall has gotten much better at throwing runners out at second base.  Yost’s mechanical change must have helped Jason a lot, as he was downright awful last season with the A’s and Cubs.  I’d also like to point out that he’s handled the bat pretty well this spring too.

  Tom’s article also notes that Alcides Escobar has been incredibly impressive defensively at shortstop this spring.  Sveum says that he’s never seen a shortstop with as strong of an arm.  Does that assessment include Rafeal Furcal?  Alcides is proving that he’s big league ready in the defensive department.  He simply needs to work on his plate discipline and hit the weight room a bit more.

  Jon Heyman of SI.com also gets the nod for the obligatory “Jason Kendall sucks” link of the day.  I won’t even go into saying why I think Heyman’s wrong, but you can give it a read anyway.

• Adam McCalvy checks in with some news for us.  Lou Palmisano will undergo surgery on his knee to repair some torn cartilage.  I think everyone knew that was coming after his knee hadn’t been getting better.  The real interesting part of the article is that Ned Yost mentions that Lou is on track to be a big league player in a short time.  That kind of outright praise from Ned is not all that common.  Hopefully Lou gets better and back on the field in a few months.

  Adam also notes that Ryan Braun will be batting behind Prince Fielder this season.  Yost wants to make sure that pitchers do not pitch around Prince.  I like this idea.  It also let’s Ryan use his speed to his advantage when getting on the basepaths.  Last year, teams would just walk Prince if Ryan stole second.  They will not be able to do that this year.  Braun’s plate discipline and walk rate will have to increase this season to make this move work, however.  Yost said that he’ll pull the plug on the idea if Braun cannot draw more walks.

• The last couple reads are NL Central Previews.  Guess who is predicted to win them both?  Yep, the Chicago Cubs.  Way to think out of the box.

  Dugout Central and No Bias Baseball both have nice short previews of everyone on the Central.  The general consensus is that Milwaukee’s starting rotation will hold them back from improving on last year’s performance.  Really, though?  You really think that Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan can pitch that much worse than they did last year?  Capuano may physically not be able to pitch any worse, actually.  Add a full season of Yovani Gallardo, a healthy (at least to start the year) Ben Sheets, and perhaps Carlos Villanueva or Manny Parra, and I cannot see how the rotation can do much worse than last year.  Milwaukee’s rotation has a much, much higher upside than that of the Chicago Cubs, but most prognosticators don’t care too much about that.

  Oh, and Dugout Central picks Ryan Braun to be Milwaukee’s breakout player of the year.  NL Rookie of the Year and 30+ home runs without playing the first month isn’t good enough for you?

I’ve been getting more interest in the BrewersNation Fantasy Baseball League, but I need to know for sure if you are interested.  Email me at jimmyb1799@aol.com if you are interested, and I can give you the information you need.  There ARE still spots open, so you should email me to play!!!

More News: 3/10

I promised you all earlier that I would have some more news for you.  Here’s what I’ve got:

• Baseball Musings does an analysis of the Brewers starting pitching staff.  It uses the Marcel Projection System, which is very simplistic and just uses averages to predict what is going to happen.  I wouldn’t put too much faith in what these projections have to say, but it is still very interesting.

  There are a couple interesting things about this evaluation though.  First, it has Manny Parra in the starting rotation, along with Dave Bush.  This leaves Carlos Villanueva out to dry, presumably in the bullpen.  Secondly, the article notes that the success for the Brewers starters is going to depend on the amount of innings the youngsters get.  The author seems to think that Yovani Gallardo and Parra are going to be instrumental to the success of the rotation this year.  I would agree with that, as Parra will give Milwaukee the best chance to win this season, but I would put Villanueva in the rotation before Bush.  It may just be favoring young upside over proven big league experience, but Bush and Chris Capuano have shown that they cannot get away from the big inning.  I still maintain that Claudio Vargas will be traded before Opening Day.

• Adam McCalvy checks in with a mailbag and an article about the progress Eric Gagne has made this spring.

  In the mailbag, McCalvy says that the Brewers will have more speed in their lineup than they’ve had in the past few years.  It should help the defense immensely in the outfield, and you can expect the Brewers to run a lot more this season.  Oh, and we get the standard Jason Kendall cannot function in the big leagues comment from a fan.

  Eric Gagne is working at his own pase, just working on his fastball and getting his pitching motion in a repeatable rhythm.  He says that as long as he doesn’t get hurt, it will be a successful spring.  He knows that his stuff will be there come April.  Also of importance, Eric says that knowing his role on the Brewers helps more that people know.  He does not have to switch focus or try to prepare for everything.  I think he’s referring to his stint in Boston, when he had to switch out of his comfortable role as a closer.  It may just be talk, but I would imagine that having a set job would be very comforting to a pitcher.

• It’s not Brewers news, but this article is very interesting.  Apparently, baseball has another “no-name” pitch.  We already have the Gyroball, but this new pitch does not have a name yet.

  Baltimore’s Rule 5 draft pick, Randor Bierd, is throwing something that neither his coaches nor his catchers can understand.  It is a mix between a change up, but somehow has the characteristics of a forkball.  Someone else said that it is a mix between a splitter and a change up.  One of his catchers said that it is “Johan Santana” type of change up.  I want to see this thing.  A splitter, forkball, and a change up in one?  Impressive.

• I know I’ve asked this before, but do we have any more takers for a BrewersNation Fantasy Baseball League?  We need more people to make this a possibility, so let me know!!!!

JS Notes: Fielder, Capuano, Bush

There’s not too much going on with Brewers news today.  I have a couple articles from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, but other than that, it looks like most of the bloggers are taking a day off.  I’ll have the Player Profile for Carlos Villanueva a little later in the day.  I have to go somewhere to watch the Wisconsin Badgers game, since I don’t get it on TV here.  They win and it’s a Big Ten Title outright!!!  Here are the two articles though:

• Mark Attanasio says that he’s trying very hard to get Prince Fielder or any of the young Brewers signed to a long-term contract.  He says that he hopes that Prince’s hard feelings won’t hurt negotiations.  Good luck…if Prince is open to it, he’s still represented by Scott Boras.
• I had been waiting for this article.  Ned Yost finally called out Chris Capuano and Dave Bush.  He says that if they expect to make the rotation, they have to perform a lot better.  Past performances can only get you so far.  It’s about time.
• There are still spots open in the BrewersNation Fantasy Baseball League.  Let me know if you are interested!!

Sorry about the brevity of the post.  I’ll be back in a bit with more Brewers news!

Brewers rally to beat Rangers

The Milwaukee Brewers spotted the Rangers a three run lead, but they managed to crawl their way back to win. The 9-8 win puts the Crew back over .500 for Spring Training.

Records: Brewers (5-4); Rangers (5-4)

Batting

Ryan Braun hit a three-run shot in the fifth inning, his second homer in as many days. Braun finished 1-2 with a walk for the day, bringing his Spring Training average to .353. Jason Kendall continued his hot hitting as well, going 2-3 with an RBI and two runs scored. He’s now hitting .412 for the spring. I certainly hope, and so do many Brewers fans, that Kendall will continue to produce this well in April.

Vinny Rottino gave the Brewers the lead for good with a go-head two-RBI single in the 8th inning. Vinny is going to make the backup catcher position a very difficult battle and decision for Ned Yost.

I reported yesterday that Corey Hart has struggled mightily in Spring Training thus far, and that did not change today. Corey went 0-3 with two strike outs. He’s now batting a measly .190 this spring.

Pitching

Chris Capuano got the start today, and everything seemed fine through two innings. He cruised along nicely until disaster struck in the third. Chris gave up six runs without recording a single out. His performance forced Yost to end his day early, and Luis Pena finished the inning for Cappy. This goes with the criticism leveled on Cappy today in my Player Profile. He does fine to start the game, but when batters have a chance to see him once or twice, they crush him.

Carlos Villanueva aslo got his work in today. His day was a bit mixed. He only gave up one run in three innings, striking out two batters, but he also gave up three hits and three walks. Those stats are a little worrisome, but it’s only three innings of his spring. He’ll bounce back. He was able to limit the damage against him, unlike Capuano earlier in the game.

Seth McClung recorded the save for the Brewers, striking out two in the 8th inning. Brian Shouse struggled a bit today. He only gave up one run, but surrendered three hits in one inning on the mound. Past performance on Shouse tells Brewers fans that he’ll come back again in a couple days and throw the ball well.

On Tap

Milwaukee stays in Phoenix to play the Kansas City Royals tomorrow at 2:05pm CT. Jeff Suppan is slated to get the start for the Crew. He looks to pitch a bit better than he did in his last outing, in which he gave up two runs in three innings.

Player Profile: Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano had a year last season that he would like to forget very, very quickly. He went on a rather obnoxious (to be frank) losing streak to end the season. He was a victim of bad luck, of poor location, and just a loss of confidence on the mound. Chris looks to bounce back to his All-Star form in 2006, and he may be able to lock up a spot in the rotation with a great spring.

‘07 Stat Line

5-12 W-L, 5.10 ERA, 150.0 IP, 54 BB, 132 K

Strengths

Chris has one of the best change ups in the league. It sweeps and dives all over the plate, and his arm movement is largely the same whether he’s throwing a fastball or a change up. That makes it very difficult to pick up for a hitter. He rarely loses control with his change up, and he can locate it down in the zone very effectively. Chris has to be able to get to that pitch, though. He struggled in the second half of the season because he could not locate his fastball and could never get to his change up. Cappy has enough confidence to throw his change up in any count, but it is not effective unless he can spot his fastball.

Chris has one of the best pickoff moves in the game. Period. He did not use it to his advantage as much last season, but I think it is because no baserunner thought it was a good idea to leave the bag more than a step or two. He can neutralize a running game just by standing on the mound, and that is a big advantage when your team does not have a catcher with a very strong arm.

Putting all stats and abilities aside, Chris Capuano has one of the best, if not the best, training regiment of the Brewers pitchers. He is constantly working out, strengthening his body, so he does not get tired after high pitch counts. He is a model for younger pitchers who may not know what type of work ethic is needed to be a successful major league pitcher, and Chris is more than willing to take the younger kids under his wing. Whether Chris is pitching well or not, it does not affect his training regiment. He always works out the same…harder than anyone else.

Weaknesses

Based of off last season, Brewers fans should be worried about Cappy’s location. His favorite pitch to right-handed hitters is to bust them in on the hands with a fastball. Last year, however, Chris kept leaving it out over the plate, and major league hitters do not miss when a pitcher makes that type of mistake. His location issues with his fastball contributed to his increased walk total of ‘07. After only walking 1.91 batters per 9 innings in 2006, his BB/9IP jumped to 3.24. Combine those numbers with the fact that he struck out fewer batters than in the past couple years. The 132 strike outs for Cappy is much lower than he is used to (even though he did pitch about 70 less innings last year than in 2006). Much of the decline in strike outs and the increase in batters walked is because Chris has the tendency to nibble around the strike zone when getting ahead in the count. He’d rather walk a batter than give up a home run. Which is fine in the short run, but he could not get back on track after walking a batter. He needs to be more aggressive and attack the strike zone more this season.

Chris had the “Dave Bush Syndrome” last season. He normally cruised through four or five innings relatively smoothly, and all the fans thought that he had found something he didn’t have in the past couple starts. Then, unexpectedly, Chris would just lose the strike zone, give up a couple home runs, or just give up a string of hits that would put the Brewers behind for good. There seemed to be no rhyme or reason to the struggle, other than the fact that it usually hit in the fifth or sixth inning. I began to just expect it by the end of the season. There should be no reason why Chris Capuano cannot get back to the form he had in 2005 and the beginning of 2006, but he needs to be a little more consistent and not give up the big inning.

Arsenal

Chris throws a very straight four-seem fastball that settles in at about 87-89 mph. He also throws a two-seamer, but he does not seem to have too much confidence in that pitch. I discussed his fantastic change up earlier in the post. One pitch that Cappy does have in the bag that he does not use is his slider. It seems to be a more loopy and sweeping version of his change up, but it could be a great way to keep the batters off balance the second or third time around the order. I would like to see Chris establish that slider earlier in the count or perhaps just earlier in the game.

Projections

ZiPS - 12-12 W-L, 4.48 ERA, 195 IP, 52 BB, 154 K
The Hardball Times - 9-9 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 160 IP, 54 BB, 126 K

The Hardball Times seems to think that either Chris Capuano is not going to make the starting rotation and join it after a couple months, or they think that Chris will lose his starting job in the middle of the season. ZiPS, on the other hand, project a fairly solid season for him. These numbers fit more with a fifth starter, and I think that is where Capuano projects at this point in his career. He is not overpowering enough to get away with his loss of control he had last season, and his change up is always on the batters’ minds now. He needs to get his fastball working on the corners to get back to his 2005-06 form.

I simply think that Chris has run his course in Milwaukee and is the most likely pitcher to be traded once Yovani Gallardo comes back from his injured knee. If he doesn’t get traded, expect him to be the long reliever for the team until he gets some of his mechanics fixed. He desperately needs a third pitch to compliment his fastball and change up, and until then, he will not be more than a fifth starter in the majors. Once it gets to the second or third time in the order, hitters know what is coming and sit on the fastball that’s coming early in the count. I expect Capuano’s walk rate to decrease a bit this year and his ERA to drop, but he will not get back to his All-Star form. I would love to be wrong about Chris, but he needs that third pitch to keep hitters honest.

Projected Stat Line: 7-6 W-L, 4.55 ERA, 138 IP, 45 BB, 110 K
Projected Season Rating (out of 10): 6.7

Today’s Reads: 3/7

Hope everyone’s doing well this morning, as always.  Hopefully this will make work go by a little faster for all of you:

• Tom Haudricourt asks whether or not the competition for the two spots in the starting rotation is really a competition.  Ned Yost says that past performances in the rotation will also count for something, which implies that no matter how badly Dave Bush pitches this spring, he’ll be in the rotation.

  Lots of people have been saying that it is a good thing that Yost is doing this.  10-15 innings of good pitching does not warrant a starting job.  It is experience and proof over time that you can do it.  Veteran pitching trumps young pitching.  Call me naive, but it seems that the past experience of Chris Capuano and Bush seem to show a bit of inconsistency.  Perhaps it’s time to give a couple of the youngsters, like Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra, a shot to help the team win.  The team is not afraid to give young players a chance in any other position, but they are tentative to give a spot to an “unproven starter.”  Both Parra and Villanueva pitched in the starting rotation last season and outperformed Claudio Vargas, Capuano, and Bush.  If past performances count for something, the last couple months of last season should also count.  It’s tough to say Milwaukee’s in “win-now” mode if they do not put their best five on the mound.

• Bugs & Cranks gives its season preview today.  It’s nothing incredibly new, but I’m including it because of this quotation.  It says, “But, if it truly is an open competition, I just hope the best two get the spots regardless of who it is… except Vargas.”  True story.
• Dugout Central talks about the overlooked transactions of the past week or so.  The retirement of Scott Cassidy makes the list.  It may seem like minor news, but I had heard that many in the Brewers organization were hoping he could rebound to his 2006 form with the Padres.  It just wasn’t meant to be…
• If you are like me, you are sick of hearing news pieces done about Prince Fielder and his frustration with his salary.  It’s just the media jumping on something and trying to make it a bigger deal than it really is.  Sure it has implications, but Prince is not going to play any differently than he did last season just because he’s unhappy with how much he’s making.  In fact, he could play harder.

  But…if you’re not like me and you want something else about it, here you go.

McCalvy’s Notes: Capuano, Villanueva, Fielder

Sorry about the prolonged absence this weekend.  I have some news for you today, though…don’t worry.  MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy is on the prowl out in Phoenix.  Let’s see what he’s dug up for us today:

• Chris Capuano is no longer on a losing streak!  After struggling the entire second half last season, Chris won a decision yesterday against the Angels.  The funny thing about his win is that he was the only Brewers pitcher to give up a run in the whole game.  I suppose after last year’s bad luck, Cappy will take whatever he can get.
• Carlos Villanueva pitched extremely well yesterday against the Angels, and he attributes that to a mechanical fix that he and Mike Maddux have been working on in the past few days.  Actually, he says it was more of a rhythmic type of adjustment, rather than a full-out mechanical fix.  With less than overpowering velocity, Villanueva relies on pinpoint command and savvy on the mound to keep hitters off-balance.  He showed what he can do last September, posting an ERA under 2.00 in the final month of the season.

  Carlos looks to be an important cog in the starting rotation this season, so it is very nice to hear his confidence growing in his command and pitches.  I am excited to see what he can do now that he’s got some major league experience under his belt.  He pitched brilliantly for the majority of ‘07, and I think his struggles in the second half were a reflection of his mental fatigue more than anything.  Yost relied on him so much that I think it wore Carlos down throughout the year, as he had never pitched that much in his pro career to that point.  He should rebound this year.

• This is the most disturbing news that came out of my absence yesterday.  Prince Fielder is…less than happy, to say the least, about his contract being renewed.  When Fielder and his agent could not agree to a multi-year deal with the Brewers, Melvin and company simply renewed his contract, which is for $670,000 in ‘08.  Prince sought something closer to $900,000, which is what Ryan Howard made last year with the Phillies.  Melvin countered that Milwaukee goes by a simple algorithm that has a set amount of money for each year and is based on performance-escalators.  Still, Prince is not happy and implied that he will be looking for big money next year in arbitration.

  This concerns me a little bit.  Prince is unhappy that he is not being rewarded for his spectacular play, but Melvin and the Milwaukee organization are simply using the same system they use for every other player.  Corey Hart and Ryan Braun both had their contracts renewed, but they did not complain outwardly.  Prince should be upset with the player’s union, which has a system set up that allows the major league team to exploit the young players for the first three-years of their contract, before they become arbitration-eligible.

  Why should Doug Melvin make an exception for Prince Fielder?  He would then have to for Hart, Braun, Gallardo, Villanueva, and presumably LaPorta in a few years.  Melvin would be sacrificing the team’s well-being to simply appease Fielder’s pocketbook.  Now, do not get me wrong, Prince Fielder deserves much more than $670,000 on the open market, but he does not have 3 years of major league service yet.  According to the contract and the system he signed to play under, he does not deserve any more than he is getting.  It may not be fair, but he should argue with the player’s union and not target Doug Melvin and the Brewers for something that is simply business.  Fielder and Melvin are both looking out for their own best interests, and Fielder’s time will come in about 12 months.

  This most likely eliminates any chance of negotiating a long-term contract with Prince, along with greatly hurting the chances of negotiating with him when he becomes a free agent.  This pretty much cements the fact that Milwaukee will be looking to trade Prince Fielder in a few years…probably for the Yankee’s entire farm system.

Capuano seeks to silence critics

Chris Capuano had a nightmare of a season in ‘07.  He was on the receiving end of 22 straight losses and lost his job in the starting rotation. 

People have pointed toward his lack of velocity and questioned his control coming into this season.  Tom Haudricourt writes that Chris Capuano has never been more motivated to have a spectacular season.  He seeks to silence his critics and regain a spot in the starting rotation. 

That path seems a little more clear now that Yovani Gallardo has gone down with torn cartilage in his left knee.  Still, Cappy would like to have that spot secure for when Yo gets back into the lineup.  That would mean he would need to get the #4 spot from Villanueva and Dave Bush. 

Brewers fans know that Capuano is certainly capable of doing that, but will he?  I do not want to make any predictions on that front.  Cappy is one of the most diligent and hard-working pitchers in the game.  He still has his All-Star form in him, but he has some work ahead of him to find it again.  He looked awful at points last season.  I think I speak for all Brewers fans when I say that I hope that Cappy can pull it back together.  He would be a very valuable addition to the rotation if pitching well again.

Haudricourt’s notes

UPDATE 02-18-08 12:15 PM - Mike Cameron did show up to camp early today.  He just arrived a little later than everyone else.  Perhaps he heard everyone else was there and decided to show up too?
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Tom Haudricourt is in Phoenix with the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has the latest on the happenings in Spring Training.

• Tom gives us a preview of the battle for the starting rotation.The only new information we can get from this article is that Haudricourt now considers Chris Capuano as a favorite for the last spot in the rotation now that Gallardo is injured. Tom considers Cappy to have his “Foot in the Door,” along with Villanueva and Bush.
• All the starting position players checked into camp early today, except new center fielder Mike Cameron. Haudricourt attributes this to the fact that Mike is a veteran and understands that the season is a grind. There is no reason to waste energy and risk injury too early in the season.

Melvin’s Expectations

Tom Haudricourt checks in today with a couple news tidbits:

• Melvin’s expectations for the ‘08 Milwaukee Brewers are simple: Win the division and go to the post-season.
• The starting rotation will most likely not be decided until the end of Spring Training, according to Melvin. He stressed the fact that injuries are a part of baseball. I understand that to mean that he does not want to trade away a pitcher, then suffer an injury and not have anyone to replace that pitcher.This worry seems a little odd, as even if the Brewers traded one pitcher, there would still be two starters waiting in the wings to pick up the slack. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors listed Chris Capuano as one of the 10 Most Likely Trade Candidates. I tend to fully agree with that sentiment, as Melvin will be able to get more for Cappy than for Vargas. Bush could be an interesting trading chip, but I don’t see Milwaukee parting with the young right-hander.
• Haudricourt also provides a preview of his interview with Ned Yost that will be published Sunday in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.It promises to be very interesting. The interview will cover the manager’s actions in the final week of the season last year. Yost was ejected three times in the last eight games, and it will specifically focus on the Cardinal game where he was thrown out after Milwaukee threw at Albert Pujols. If you can recall, this incident occurred after St. Louis threw at Prince Fielder earlier in the game. Haudricourt even promises previously unheard information about the Pujols-Fielder incident that will be published on Sunday. I look forward to that read.

Bedard finally to Seattle

The Bedard-Mariners deal is finally completed. The Ms sent over a HUGE haul to get Bedard, a much bigger package than the Mets got for Johan. The Orioles received center fielder Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill, and pitchers Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

The amazing aspect of this deal is that the prized prospect, Adam Jones, may not even be the best player when all is said and done. Scouts have been raving about Chris Tillman, and many believe that he’ll be the steal of this trade.

This is important for the Brewers because another pitcher is off the market. The more pitchers that find teams in the coming month, the higher demand for pitchers like Chris Capuano and Carlos Vargas. I originally thought that Melvin would make a trade before Spring Training, but it is beginning to look like he will not make a move until late March. He’s still worried about the injury bug hitting the Brewers in the spring. If the Brewers get through relatively unscathed, however, Melvin and the Crew will be in a great bargaining position to get a couple nice pitching prospects for either Capuano or Vargas.

Projections: Brewers pitching

With all the starting jobs for the position players being finalized, the main concern for the Milwaukee Brewers is the starting pitching rotation. Who’s going to start? Who’s going to get traded? Will Parra get sent to the minors? Will Ben Sheets play for most of the year?

We’ve been hearing the questions for a couple months now, and I think it’s time that we look at some projections for Brewers pitching. Using Marcel’s system for 2008, here are the projected statistics for each of the candidates for a starting job:

Ben Sheets - 10-7 W-L, 3.93 ERA, 141 IP, 119 K
Yovani Gallardo - 8-5 W-L, 3.76 ERA, 110 IP, 96 K
Jeff Suppan - 11-9 W-L, 4.62 ERA, 206 IP, 107 K
Carlos Villanueva - 6-4 W-L, 3.97 ERA, 93 IP, 76 K
Chris Capuano - 8-10 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 155 IP, 126 K
Carlos Vargas - 10-8 W-L, 4.95 ERA, 154 IP, 106 K
Dave Bush - 10-10 W-L, 4.55 ERA, 172 IP, 126 K
Manny Parra - 2-2 W-L, 4.11 ERA, 46 IP, 37 K

I know these are very crude projections. They are mostly averages that take into account the league average and age, yet it gives us a nice starting point to make comparisons.

It’s time for BrewersNation to make their cases for who should be in the starting rotation. You all have been quiet for a few days now, and its time to start the banter. What do you think?

Here’s what I have — Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, and Bush.

Here’s why — Sheets, Gallardo, and Suppan are all locks. Villanueva has garnered high praise from Yost and Melvin, and he seems to have his foot in the door. It seemed like the Brewers were more comfortable with Villy in the starting rotation at the end of the year. Melvin has said that Carlos pitched very well at the beginning of the season in the bullpen and that the Crew may need his presence there again this year. I don’t think that’s going to happen, however.

Finally, the last spot is a tough choice. I would really like to see Parra in the final spot. It would first give us a lefty at the end of the rotation, so we are not so right-handed in our starting 5. But more importantly, I believe that Parra is the best pitcher out of the remaining candidates. With that said, however, Parra will probably be sent to Nashville to keep his arm out of trouble. He’s been very injury prone, and the Brewers want to be careful with Manny while they can afford to do so.

Being reinforced by Melvin’s words the other day, Bush is a strong candidate for the fifth spot. He has the most potential out of any other pitcher left, besides Parra. He does have the tendency to pitch brilliantly for 5 innings and blow up in the sixth, I admit it, but Bush has a fastball with a lot of movement and a nice curve when he can get to it. I would consider Capuano, but I believe he’ll be traded before the season starts. I didn’t even consider Vargas for the last spot, if you were wondering.

Now it’s your turn. What do you think BrewersNation?